From Data to Decisions: Methods That Make CBAs Credible
Discounting reflects time preference and opportunity cost. Public analyses often test rates around three to seven percent. Report your main rate and alternatives. Long-horizon programs, like early childhood interventions, can be highly sensitive. Show how results change to avoid overstating certainty and to respect intergenerational impacts.
From Data to Decisions: Methods That Make CBAs Credible
Identify assumptions driving results—participation, effect sizes, costs, or attrition. Stress test them with optimistic, central, and conservative scenarios. Tornado charts and ranges help decision-makers grasp risk quickly. Ask readers which parameters worry them most, then refine models collaboratively and transparently in your next update.